• Gainers 14, Losers 30, Unchanged 49

The NSE ASI recorded its first New Low as it continued its way down by 84.79 points closing at 20,598.67.

Yes this is a New Low, The last time market witnessed such low was 4th Jan 2012 when it hit 20,635 points and rebounded to 20,905 points.

Technicals

Right now, we are looking at 2 scenarios A Breakout or Rebound….

Rebound

Today’s close shows the Index is testing a support level for the 3rd time: (TRIPLE BOTTOM)

1. 28th of December Lows of 20,617 points
2. 4th January lows of 20,635 points

Both the NSE ASI and the NSE 30 are within their respective 30MAs intraday today which could turn out to be the retest of the 30MA. Indeed, such levels are typical of short term reversals gaining or loosing within 300- 600 points. We will still need to see a good follow up tomorrow in order to confirm this.

However, it is of little doubt that investors are ready and willing to buy and that supports the long term bull trend scenario.

Breakout..

If the support/30 MA points level is broken, the market will laspe into an intermediate neutral trend with support at the 20,500 level. Failing which, the market will fall into an intermediate bear trend.

As the saying goes, there is no such thing as a triple bottom. If the market make a new low here, we can be sure that the odds favor lower lows rather than a reversal. At this point, there is no indications of strength at this critical area and I am more convinced that the intermediate bull trend is dying and that the market is in real danger of going back into an intermediate bear trend.

Tomorrows trade holds the key as 30 MA IS TESTED

TA SIGNALS FOR JANUARY 24 2012

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