The market opened to a slight downside gap but recovered into the close, trading lower volume overall.

Today’s fun facts + links:

• Apple impacts S&P 500′s earnings to the tune of 20 – 30% (Market Montage)
• Barry explains the current market in a language everyone can understand (Yahoo Tech Ticker Video)
• Today’s volume was the lowest non-holiday trading day in over a decade (ZeroHedge)
• Super Bowl sets record with 111.3 Million Viewers (Bloomberg)

Congratulations to the New York Giants on the big Super Bowl victory yesterday. See you back here tomorrow!

Visit link:
February 6th, 2012 Market Recap and Volume Record

• Gainers 21, Losers 27
• Weekly Gainers26 ,Weekly Losers 39

It was a volatile week that ended up serving as a consolidation for the general markets. While the NSE Index generally closed near unchanged, there was plenty of movement mid-week following the MPC Statement that Rates remained unchanged, It was interesting to note, that despite the general indexes ending near flat, some major blue chips & Banking shares traded very well helping to propel the NSE 30 & NSE Banking sector.

With overall market lost a mere 0.07%, this action may be revealing that the market is in need of some consolidation or rest,  Traders need to remain cautious, despite the multitude of stocks moving higher.

WEEKLY GAINERS & LOSERS

TA SIGNALS FOR FEBRUARY 3 2012

So what are the charts saying?

Overall the NSE ASI closed 20,877.64 points is approaching resistant levels of 20,892 of 27th January 2012.

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

We need to see strong Breakouts above these levels to determine how Health this Bull rally is.

NSE 30

This sector which rates 30 most capitalized stocks quarterly broke out from two resistant points of 27th & 30th levels of 936.78 points.

Need to tesy for strength as it approaches 17th January highs of 946.54 points

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

NSE BANKING

The banking sector was the winner for this week pulling a total of 1.74% on huge volume breaking out of its last resistant lines of 275.87.

This current bull trend has done a 100% Fibonacci breakout which gives room for more profit taking and Good Entry levels when a Pullback occurs within 279 points

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

STOCK OF THE MONTH

Nahco Plc gained 18.52% for the 1st week of February opening at N6.46 to close at N7.87.

My current analysis is based on a weekly chart time where its been trending Lower lows and Highs. It stabilized in early December at N4.75 rebounded to N5.15 and pulled back to N4.75 on the 19th of December where it formed a Double bottom formation and 14 day RSI formed a Bullish Divergence.

It never looked back and has been trending into new month highs. Today’s close shows a record of 6 months High and approaching July resistant levels of N8.00 on a daily time frame, While weekly time frame looks good at N8.95 in correlation with Lower Highs drawn from 14th May 2010 to 28th January 2012.

All in all. The overall trend was the Good week for the NSE ASI particularly for those who traded in NSE 30 and NSE BANKING Sector, We hope to see how traders risk into these Congestion zones next week if a Breakout or Pullback occurs. Its a waiting game.

Wishing you all a Nice weekend and Happy Monday Holiday

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The market is on one mission, and that is to break through 2011 highs. Today we saw it crawl ever closer as the NASDAQ finished within 1% of 2887.75 (.0972% to be exact).

Interesting today:

• The average daily market changes falls back under 1% (Bespoke) – “At one point in early December 2008, the S&P 500 had averaged a daily change of +/-4.02% over the prior 50 days, which is the highest level ever seen in the index’s history.”
• From StockCharts.com, “According to the Wall Street Journal, ‘Caterpillar’s 20% stock surge this month contributed nearly 34% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 415-point advance.’ As a price weighted ‘average’ the highest priced issues in the Dow carry the most weight. This is also true for the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities.”
• Facebook’s S-1 reveals Zynga (ZNGA) supplies 12% of Facebook’s revenue, shares soar (IBD)

Tomorrow we have the all important jobs report due out which will possibly maybe probably not have an effect on this market. full details.

No recap tomorrow as usual so have a FANTASTIC weekend and I will see you next week!

Continue reading here:
February 2nd, 2012 Market Recap with look at ZNGA Breakout

The NSE ASI closed slightly upwards by 31.13 points today,rebounding from yesterdays fall of 84.96 points.

Indeed, this current rally for February is too early to judge since this two day rally is a Draw. But when looking at percentage movement, the Bears seems to be gaining more ground, coupled with total analysis signalling NEW LOW now places the market in the realm of Fear + Greed.

Greed causes traders to drive prices up as they follow the herd but as prices go higher and higher, the marginal utility of profit making falls and the fear of losing those profit takes over. It will come to a tipping point where making more money is less satisfying than the fear of losing those gains so far and then a profit taking occurs, taking the market down.

Yes today’s rally is beginning to show more of Fear, Example watching Firstbank intraday rallies started on a very strong Bullish spike to N10.62 then profit takers rushed in, took the price to N10.44, the bulls resumed  taking Firstbank within N10.55-N10.56 levels on huge volume but bears resumed in the last 10 minutes closing down at N10.49 on a ratio of 1:2 at the close of market .

Clearly the NSE ASI is under significant short term pressure right now. Short term bearish momentum is now rising indicating possible short term weakness coming up. The Index could retest the 30DMA of 20,749 points for strength before the rebound can happen or break away back to 20,460 points range where it started.

The NSE ASI has survived multiple strong bearish formations to get this far and it certainly won’t give up without a fight.

So far the Bulls still have 0.44% life line to defend.

TA SIGNALS FOR FEBRUARY 02 2012

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A positive push forward for the market today lead by the NASDAQ has brought us within 2% of 2011 highs. With Europe as a “no need to worry” zone and a hardly mediocre US economy being pushed aside, the trend remains up.

Interested reads today:

• Facebook has over 800 million users, filed today to raise $5 Billion in an IPO (Bloomberg)
• A REAL look at the housing market with Barry Ritholtz (Yahoo Video)
• Greece is heading to a “condition of absolute poverty” (ZeroHedge)
• Is 2012 set to be a copy performance of 2011? (Bespoke)

And the best are these 8 Facebook fun facts from its IPO prospectus (hat tip ZeroHedge):

1. Facebook’s stock ticker will be “FB“
2. Facebook’s IPO will raise $5 Billion
3. Facebook currently has 845 million monthly active users (MAU)
4. Facebook currently has 483 million daily active users (DAU)
5. Facebook has over 2.7 Billion likes and comments per day
6. There are 100 Billion friendships on Facebook
7. Facebook sees 250 million photos uploaded daily
8. Facebook had $3.7 Billion in revenue for 2011, 85% growth year over year (YOY)

Mind boggling! Will you be buying Facebook when it goes public?

Read more from the original source:
February 1st, 2012 Market Recap with 8 Facebook IPO Fun Facts

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The Month of February opened on a Bearish note as the NSE ASI was down by 84.96 points today after trading trading in positive zone for most part of the day.

Market opened up to an optimistic start today climbing higher prior to yesterdays rally. The strong opening led to an immediate Sell off from some investors exiting on strength but as the NSE ASI finally closed down at 20,790.87 points.

As such, today’s drop should be one of short term technical profit taking.

Yes Technical in nature as this pullback occurred within the resistant levels of 20,892 points recorded on the 27th of January.

Though early market signals on the intraday charts showed bullish spikes within 20,924 points the Bears were on hand to checkmate the Bulls.

Technically, The NSE ASI has completed its Double Top Formation as it formed the Letter “M” today closing along its 10 Days Moving Average.

Todays close has also formed an Ascending Triangle formation

Ascending Triangle

This type of formation occurs when there is a resistance level and a slope of higher lows.

What happens during this time is that there is a certain level that the buyers cannot seem to exceed. However, they are gradually starting to push the price up as evident by the higher lows.

In the charts above, you can see that the buyers are starting to gain strength because they are making higher lows. They keep putting pressure on that resistance level and as a result, a breakout is bound to happen.

Now the question is, “Which direction will it go? Will the buyers be able to break that level or will the resistance be too strong?”

Two schools of thought here.

• Rebound and Break the 20,892 resistant lines or
• Continue the Current pullback down to 20,610 points in the long run where we started

My view, is the Bulls have 0.29% YTD life line to defend in order to keep this rally in check.

TA SIGNALS FOR FEBRUARY 1 2012

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Market speed summary from investors.com:

Stocks wavered to a narrowly mixed finish Tuesday following a round of worst-than-expected economic reports, but the major indexes ended January with big gains.

Fun fact of the day, SentimenTrader (one of my favorite newsletters) reports,

For the first time in history, the S&P 500 never suffered any more than 0.6% drop during the entire month of January.

Pretty impressive I’d say. Jason goes on to note however that when looking at this occurrence for other months during the year there seems to be no meaningful buy or sell signal for moving forward.

In earnings, AMZN stock is down over 8% in after hours trade after reporting earnings that missed sales and gave a unimpressive outlook for Q1 revenue. Full breakdown at MarketWatch. The stock is sitting at about $177.50 currently.

Updated Gold chart analysis included tonight, see you back here tomorrow!

Link:
January 31st, 2012 Market Recap with AMZN, Gold Updates

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• JANUARY ECONOMIC SUMMARY NIGERIA TRW REPORT

This analysis is based on the BIG 3, Firstbank, GTB and Zenithbank as we approach Earnings season.

Know where you belong, Short, Medium/Long-term…

Happy Viewing

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Market got off on a great start today as a wave of optimism swept over markets prior as MPR rates remains stable.

STOCK OF THE MONTH.

• gainers 23, losers 21
• The major highlights of the meeting are likely going to be:The retaining of the MPR at 12%. This is largely because the authorities will want to observe the impact of the recent partial removal of the fuel subsidy on the economy.
• The CBN is likely to maintain the Naira/Dollar exchange rate at N155/US$+/-3% for Q1 2012. Speculative window highly likely to grow tighter in this quarter given the anticipated increase in convergence between street and official dollars.
• Inflation tackling and/or the management of other macroeconomic indicators are highly likely to assume the backseat during Q1 2012.
• Microsoft Word – Pre-MPC communique of January 30 – 31 2012

We did experience some profit taking within 11am & 12 pm but heavy buying resumed as investors rushed back for equities once again today in their see-saw game as they took the Index u by 144.11 points on huge volume closing at 20,875.83.

Traders seem to be convinced that today’s rally might be fundamentally driven on good Dividend payout from the BIG 3 (Firstbank, GTB & Zenithbank) as the Banking sector spiked u by 2.17% cancelling 2 days Bearish rally.

Technicals
The NSE ASI revisited its 30DMA once again, continuing its recent behavior of sudden big moves. Today’s rebound however, is within a “Double Top Formation” in the making ,

• A double top occurs when prices form two distinct peaks on a chart. A double top is only complete, however, when prices decline below the lowest low – the “valley floor” – of the pattern.
• The double top is a reversal pattern of an upward trend in a stock’s price. The double top marks an uptrend in the process of becoming a downtrend.
• Sometimes called an “M” formation because of the pattern it creates on the chart, the double top is one of the most frequently seen and common of the patterns. Because they seem to be so easy to identify, the double top should be approached with caution by the investor.

According to Schabacker, the double top is a “much misunderstood formation.” Many investors assume that, because the double top is such a common pattern, it is consistently reliable. This is not the case. Schabacker estimates that probably not more than a third of them signal reversal and that most patterns which an investor might call a double top are not in fact that formation.2 Bulkowski estimates the double top has a failure rate of 65%. If an investor waits for the breakout, however, the failure rate declines to 17%.

Such a formation usually mean that the market could go either way significantly from here.

• Hit the last resistant levels of 21,072 points or
• Reverse within current closing price to build another momentum to the upside.

TA SIGNALS FOR JANUARY 31 2012

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